What would a battery have earned in the National Electricity Market over the last year? Set its size and region, and the estimate is worked out from every 5-minute AEMO price in the last 12 complete months.
Estimated revenue, last 12 months
- Total a year
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- Energy arbitrage
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- FCAS
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- Per MW a year
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- Per MWh of storage a year
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- Kept per MWh discharged
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- Perfect hindsight, energy
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Month by month
- Energy
- FCAS
Hover or tap a bar for that month.
| Month | Energy | FCAS | Total | Kept per MWh |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading the price history… | ||||
Data: Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), NEMWeb dispatch reports, used under AEMO's Copyright Permissions. Processed by ElectraGlobe. Prices are 5-minute dispatch prices in NEM time and may be revised. Informational only. Not for trading or financial decisions.
Need a number you can take to a bank?
This calculator is a first look. A bankable business case needs a dispatch model with forecast prices, degradation, network charges, loss factors and the connection limits of your site. Our engineers do that work for utility-scale battery and hybrid projects.
Talk to us about your batteryHow the estimate is made
For each day of the last 12 complete months, the calculator assumes the battery charges in the cheapest 5-minute intervals of that day and discharges in the dearest, as many as its size and cycle limit allow. Round-trip efficiency is taken off the charging side: an 85% efficient battery buys about 1.18 MWh for every 1 MWh it sells. Nothing carries over from one day to the next. If a month's best spread does not cover the losses, the battery is assumed to stay idle that month.
That is perfect hindsight, which no operator has. The capture rate scales the result down to what a real trading strategy keeps. Published analysis of Australian batteries tends to put that between 60% and 80% of the perfect-hindsight figure, depending on the region, the optimiser and the year.
FCAS is simpler still. The share of power you reserve for FCAS is taken out of the energy trading, and is assumed to be enabled in every market you tick for half of the hours in each month, at that month's average price. Regulation covers raise and lower regulation. Contingency covers all eight contingency markets. Real enablement depends on bids, co-optimisation with energy and the market's needs, so treat the FCAS figure as a rough guide. See live FCAS prices for what each market pays now.
What it leaves out
Degradation and augmentation, availability and outages, marginal loss factors, network and connection charges, causer-pays and market fees, the administered price cap, contracts and caps sold to retailers, bidding behaviour, and forecast error. Each of these can move a project's revenue by more than the difference between two regions.
Reading the result
Compare regions and sizes rather than reading the total as a promise. South Australia and Victoria usually show the most arbitrage value because of their deep negative prices in the middle of the day and sharp evening peaks. Longer batteries earn more in total but less per MWh of storage, because the extra hours are spent in less extreme intervals. For the full revenue picture, read how battery energy storage systems make money in Australia.
Frequently asked questions
What is the capture rate?
The share of the perfect-hindsight arbitrage spread that a real battery keeps. A real operator does not know tomorrow's prices, so it charges and discharges at less than ideal times. Values of 60 to 80 percent are typical for Australian batteries.
Why use perfect hindsight at all?
It gives an upper bound that is easy to reproduce from published AEMO prices. The capture rate then brings it down to something realistic, and you can see how sensitive the result is by moving it.
Does the estimate include negative prices?
Yes. When the cheapest intervals of a day are below zero, the battery is paid to charge, and that counts as revenue.
Why does South Australia often show more than New South Wales?
South Australia has more hours of very low or negative prices in the middle of the day and more volatile evening peaks, so the daily spread between the cheapest and dearest intervals is wider.
Which months are used?
The last 12 complete months for which every day of prices is available. If fewer than 12 are available, the result is scaled to a year and the page says so.
Where do the FCAS prices come from?
From the same AEMO dispatch reports as the energy prices. The calculator uses each month's average price in each FCAS market for the region you choose.
Can I use this for a bank or an investment decision?
No. It is a screening tool built on historical prices with simplified operation. A bankable case needs a full dispatch and revenue model with forecast prices and site-specific constraints.